With December 22, 2032 approaching in less than 10 years, speculation over a potential meteorite collision on our planet has been the top story around the world. Chances of a catastrophic collision have raised scientific interest along with sensationalized media coverage, so much so that some have likened it to a comparison with the “world’s end” prediction by the Mayan calendar for December 21, 2012. Let’s have a look at the facts, the potential impact, the likelihood of it occurring, and how governments are gearing up—or not—for it to happen.

The subject meteorite, colloquially known as 2032-X, was found by astronomers at the end of 2021. There were initial signs of a slim, but certain, chance that it would collide with Earth’s orbit. NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) approximated that the diameter of the object lies between 100 and 300 meters, large enough to cause devastation over a particular region but much too small for the devastation of a whole world.

The estimated impact area, in case the meteorite strikes Earth, is not certain since it is difficult to trace its path accurately. However, early models suggest a higher likelihood of impact in the Pacific Ocean, with secondary impacts like tsunamis striking coastal regions in Asia, North America, and South America. In case it strikes land, densely populated regions or major infrastructure could be devastated.

If 2032-X were to collide with Earth, the effects would depend on its size, velocity, and place of impact. A 300-meter meteorite impacting the ground might blow with the power of hundreds of atomic bombs, forming a crater some kilometers wide and obliterating a vast tract of tens of kilometers around the site. Shockwaves, fire, and remains created by the blast would burn adjacent cities and habitats.

An ocean effect, though less immediately destructive to human settlements, can lead to tsunamis with wave heights of tens of meters and threaten coastal dwellings, as well as bring about immense flooding. Additionally, the aerosols and dust injected into the atmosphere would lead to short-term cooling of the climate, affecting agriculture and worldwide weather.
Currently, the likelihood of 2032-X impacting Earth is small. Current estimates place the risk at approximately 1 in 10,000, but this is likely to change with more data acquired. Astronomers note that these kinds of estimates are always approximate, especially for objects observed years ahead of time. The trajectory of the meteorite could be changed by gravitational forces with other bodies, solar radiation, or even humanity.

Governments and space agencies are following 2032-X with interest. NASA, ESA, and other agencies are using high-end telescopes and radar systems to more precisely define the object’s path and ascertain the danger. The United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA) has also had discussions about potential mitigation strategies, including deflection missions.

One of the options presented is the kinetic impactors—spacecraft that would crash into the meteorite and divert it. The other is gravity tractors, which would use a spacecraft’s gravity to gently push the object off course. These technologies aren’t developed yet, however, and would require international cooperation and financing. In spite of these efforts, there are a few critics who maintain that governments are not doing enough, considering the absence of one global plan and insufficient investment in planet defense. Others have a tendency to think that the threat is exaggerated, diverting money from more serious issues like climate change and global inequality.

Media reporting on 2032-X has consisted both of fact coverage and sensationalism. Warnings in headlines that an “apocalypse” was imminent have resembled the 2012 phenomenon when the world interpreted the end-date of the Mayan calendar, which finished only a 5,126-year cycle. As much as the Mayan calendar simply marked an end of an era of its own type, the fanfare over December 21, 2012, fueled fear globally and conspiratorial theories.

Similarly, the 2032 meteorite has been a focus of doomsday speculation, with some suggesting it was due to ancient prophecy or astronomical alignment. This has been aided by social media, with misinformation spreading rapidly. Scientists urge people to use genuine sources and not be alarmed, suggesting the chances of a cataclysmic impact are very low.

Therefore, the possibility of the meteorite impact on Earth on December 22, 2032, reminds us of the vulnerabilities of our planet in a changing solar system. Even though the chances are remote, the event itself reminds us of the importance of investment in planetary defense and international cooperation. It also reminds us of the power of the media in generating fear and misinformation.

As we approach 2032, the focus must be on science, preparedness, and rational debate—not doomsday scenarios or hype. Whether or not 2032-X is an actual threat, it offers an opportunity to reflect on humanity’s place in the universe and our shared responsibility to save our planet. We had already witnessed many similar scenarios and “world panics” that were well orchestrated and managed by governments and media to take advantage of the mass, but in the end nothing happened. Nostradamus, Baba Vanga, and many others had so-called prophecies that were always altered to fit in today’s narrative; who can forget the End of the World in 2000 when some sects committed suicide or sold everything and went to Nepal to survive. Even in 2012 with the Mayan prophecy where some took EOW Insurance policy or bought bunkers and stockpiled on food and necessities.

One thing for sure, once we hit 2032, we will laugh at it and pretend it was all false.