#MyTakeOn is a purely subjective opinion based on personal observation and analysis. Far from being affiliated to any political agenda and preference to any local or foreign individual, party or group. It filters out conspiracy theories that circulated among the mass with the objective of discrediting any opposite opinion to the single-narrative.

Five months have passed since the events of October 7 that made the Middle East take a different turn of what was planned from and expected. In a climate of regional appeasement, the Middle East was heading toward open communications and pacifications among all nations. The regional deal, spearheaded by key players in the Middle East, aimed to address longstanding conflicts and establish a new geopolitical landscape. Various stakeholders, including neighboring countries and global powers, engaged in diplomatic talks to shape the future of the region.

Syria, where Al-Assad was kept in power, began talks with Abu Dhabi and the Arab League; and was no longer considered a threat to Israel in the Golan Heights or to the US presence near the Kurds in the north. Syria was again embraced by the GCC’s regional influence with strict instructions to maintain a low profile.

Egypt was heading to reelect Sissi who promised progress under the benediction and an economic alliance with the Saudi Kingdom.

Lebanon, under Michel Aoun had passed a maritime border agreement with Israel; a deal sponsored by the US that aimed to open talks with Hezbollah in return for future promises such as declassifying the party of god as a terrorist organization and recognizing their political bureau.

Saudi Arabia, with its soon-to-be king MBS became the innovator for peace talks and had made huge strides in building unprecedented ties with the Hebrew state.

Houthis in Yemen, were given control of the southern part of the country after the cease-fire of Saudi and Emirati military operations, which had to halt any missile firing towards the kingdom following the summit between Iranian and Saudi officials in Riyadh.

In Iraq, the government in place set up by the USA was not considered strong enough to stand in front of The Popular Mobilization Forces (Al Hashed Al Shaebi), the paramilitary group supported by Iran. But the overall situation was kept under control as long as the safety of US personnel was guaranteed.

The Regional Deal Unfolds

But the only “untameable” entity that remained was Hamas. As the negotiations progressed, it became apparent that Hamas was not part of the discussions. The exclusion of the group raised questions about the implications for the Palestinian cause and the broader stability of the region. Hamas, a Palestinian group that was created in the 1980’s as a new force to counter Arafat’s power in the occupied territories, had received indirect support from western powers as well as Israel itself. It gained popularity due to massive amounts of money and weapons from regional sources like Egypt, Libya, and Gulf countries with the overall consent of the USA.

Hamas, considered a significant player in the Palestinian territories, found itself isolated amid the regional deal. The exclusion could be attributed to various factors, including concerns about the group’s militant activities and its historical stance on Israel. Some participating nations may have viewed Hamas as an obstacle to achieving lasting peace in the region.

While some argue that Hamas should have been included in the talks to ensure a comprehensive resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, others maintain that the exclusion was a strategic decision to streamline negotiations and avoid potential disruptions. In a recent turn of events in the Middle East, Hamas found itself on the sidelines of a significant regional deal. The events of October 7 unfolded as a carefully orchestrated operation aimed at reshaping the dynamics in the region, leaving the Palestinian political and militant group out of the negotiating table.

The October 7 Operation

October 7 marked a pivotal moment in the unfolding events, as an all-out operation aimed at shuffling the cards in the Middle East took place. The operation, executed with precision, sought to realign alliances, address security concerns, and consolidate power among key players in the region.

The specific details of the October 7 operation remain shrouded in secrecy, with reports suggesting covert military actions, intelligence operations, and diplomatic maneuvers. The impact of this operation rippled through the geopolitical landscape, influencing the dynamics of regional relationships and alliances.

Many intel sources support the idea that the Israeli agencies were aware of an incoming threat, and were closely monitoring Hamas activities for months before the operation. They even raised warnings, but the political governance emitted an inconsequential interpretation; as if they wanted something to happen in order to execute a certain agenda. “It’s our September 11” said Netanyahu in the evening following the operation, as if to allude to the fact that his prophecy plan that was kept on the shelf for years should be implemented now.

Other theories confirm the direct implication of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the operations, although Iran and its regional allies like Hezbollah and the Houthis seemed surprised on the morning of October 7. Did Yahya Al-Sinwar act on his own? Did he plan and execute this plan with his little group without any regional interference? Was he collaborating with the Israelis themselves? No one surely knows, despite the fact that Hezbollah felt compelled to start a military operation in South Lebanon to alleviate the military burden on Hamas in Gaza; as well as for the Houthis in Yemen by targeting cargo ships in the Red Sea.

Were the events of October 7 aimed at reshuffling the negotiation process? Was Iran furious at not gaining much from the Israeli-Arab rapprochement? But one thing is for sure, the aftermath of the October 7 operation will likely shape the Middle East’s political and security landscape for the foreseeable future.

In conclusion, the events surrounding the exclusion of Hamas from the regional deal and the October 7 operation underscore the complexities and challenges inherent in the Middle East’s geopolitical dynamics. The repercussions of these developments will continue to unfold, influencing the path towards stability, peace, and cooperation in the region.